In the run-up to the USDA estimate of the coming world harvest on Wednesday evening European time, speculation is running at full speed. Traders are withdrawing from risky commitments. Favorable US weather prospects for the order are also putting pressure on stock market prices.
Several answers are expected on Wednesday. How will the USDA assess the acreage and yield of corn? As of this past weekend, 95% of the area has been planted. This means that the sowing dates for corn have largely expired, so that the late-sown soybeans are taking up some of the acreage. It is also possible that areas will remain uncultivated and will be paid for by the default insurance.
Speculation on the US corn harvest varies between a reduction from the original May estimate of 360 million tons to less than 345 million tons. Serious risks are seen in the final stocks for 2014, which could be considerably lower than previously assumed due to low initial stocks, increasing consumption and rising exports.
At 71%, soybean sowings fell short of expectations. Compared to the multi-year average, it should have been 84 %. Seed emergence is almost 20 % points below the multi-year average. At the beginning of May, the USDA estimated a record harvest level of 92 million tons. Current speculation fluctuates between additional acreage to increase the harvest and lower yields due to late sowing.
The first US winter wheat crops were threshed in the early threshing areas. Contrary to expectations, yields are said to have been good.
Wheat threshing in southern Russia began 2 weeks earlier than usual with good average yields. The provision of state intervention grain for consumers in the current year met with little interest. Russia intends to significantly increase state stocks again for 2013/14. Grain prices in the Black Sea region are now falling significantly after their upswing in April.
The effects of the flooding on the Elbe and in the Danube region are still difficult to assess. Rough estimates put the loss of grain at around 1 million tons with an average assumed EU harvest of around 290 million tons.
Rapeseed prices remain under pressure. The data comes from the Winnipeg exchange, where canola prices have been falling for weeks. The background is a favorable canola sowing season in Canada. Recently, the weakening soy complex has contributed to the weakness. Palm oil prices are also falling again after a brief recovery. Favorable prospects for oilseed harvests coupled with weak demand in the oil sector and falling meal prices are pushing down the oil mills' price range for raw materials.
