Even if the weather develops favorably, the decisive factor for market development is that less milk will be delivered to dairies from June to November, even if it will be more than in 2012. It is therefore unlikely that the record volume of around 141 million tons achieved in the 2012 calendar year will be reached. According to the ZMB, Berlin, 34.5 million tons of milk were delivered to dairies in the first four months of this year, 0.7 million tons less than in the first quarter of 2012. Together with the continued strong demand for exports, this is the reason for low stocks of butter, cheese and skimmed milk powder and higher prices. There is therefore much to suggest that the firm market situation will continue at least until the end of 2013, as the domestic market must be continuously supplied and more could be sold for export if sufficient goods were available from current production and storage. For the most part, we can therefore expect current market prices to move sideways at a high level, and butter could even become more expensive.
What the bull says
Low stocks and seasonally falling milk production
What the bear thinks
Reaction of demand from consumers, the food industry and importers abroad to the sharp rise in prices
