Average fixed relationships of Ferkel-to pig prices
In the last 5 years has emerged, that have developed the average relationship between pig and piglet prices fairly constant . In the period preceded the development of piglet prices in relation to the pork prices was characterized. The background was the rising productivity of piglets spreading Dan breeding at the same time increasing pig imports from the Netherlands and Denmark.
Today the productivity gains tend to be back to the normal extent and stagnant imports from Denmark and the Netherlands to Germany for several years. Germany has a lack of piglets by rd. 20% compared to the figures of the battle "national origins" of slaughter pigs.
One can separate the developments over time in a linear constant running trend and the seasonal high and lows in the spring or fall a years. A medium-term cyclical component as a result of the continually better utilization of big stocks is less pronounced.
Typical of the relationship between pig - and pork prices is the finding that at high prices the piglet prices disproportionately higher and vice versa at low price levels accordingly. In recent times, this phenomenon of cyclical fluctuations in a less strong expression is observed. Given the low pork prices as a result of the Russia import ban, the piglet prices as regards the trends keep amazingly stable.
The reason for the relatively fixed average price relative can be found in the German deficit of piglets . The distinctive mast square overhangs cause a relative shortage of piglets, which must be satisfied by expensive imports from surplus regions. Therefore, a shifting of low pig piglet prices in previous years is not more easily possible.
The result is that the price signals for a restriction of the production be passed partially to pig producers. They respond in turn was less pronounced with the reduction in the number of sows. The adjustment reactions of the offer of the pig sector at the changed demands run over longer periods as if they had occurred under different conditions.
Low pig prices 2016 show in the 3rd year in a row that the usual response time is exceeded by 1.5 to 2 years in the past.
