In its second provisional estimate for the 2019 UK potato harvest, the AHDB (Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board) puts the figure at 5.19 million tons. The estimate is based on information from 292 farmers and assumes that 5.5% of the area under cultivation has not yet been harvested. The yield is estimated at an average of 46 tons/hectare.
At the beginning of November, it was assumed that 482,000 tons of potatoes remained in the ground. The quantity harvested and stored up to that point should hold up reasonably well so far. However, wet harvested batches had to be used up quickly. There is currently no estimate of the storage stock.
According to experts, the shortage of market supply is likely to vary from region to region and depending on the type of use.
Prices for table potatoes have already risen significantly and have already reached the highs of the previous year. However, there are also regions where it has not rained as much. Farmers from there have already sold up to 70% of their harvest in advance. In parts of Lincolnshire and neighboring regions where it has rained exceptionally much, farmers are barely able to deliver their contracted quantities. In Scotland, where the harvest is almost complete, more non-contracted potatoes are likely to be sold to England and Wales early next year, which should put pressure on prices.
Yorkshire and parts of the North West and North East, where the most rainfall was recorded and where it rained throughout the growing season, the highest percentage of potatoes remained in the ground. The figure is said to be 20-30%. Around 30% of British processing potatoes grow there. Almost exclusively late-ripening varieties are affected. On 8 October, 774,000 tons were still in the ground.
Heavy rainfall in September worsened the baking colors and there were repeated complaints even though the market was extremely poorly supplied. All potatoes harvested in October have poor baking colors and all attempts to improve this have so far failed.
Since November, the harvest has made almost no progress at all, as the soil is barely drying out. What is harvested now is no longer suitable for storage. The affected farmers are now waiting until spring to see whether any of the harvest can still be used for its intended purpose.
As potato yields on the European mainland have been below average, British importers can hardly import any potatoes for human consumption from here. On the contrary, countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania are also looking for potatoes for consumption.
After Christmas, however, Scottish potatoes should ensure that table potato prices in the UK do not rise any further for the time being. French fries factories in the UK are currently buying their processing raw material in France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Mail order companies are currently achieving at least €11 per tonne ex station. This is currently the cheapest alternative for buyers on the island.
Source
HANSA Terminhandel
