The very low global wheat prices force farmers in Australia to grow other crops as wheat. As a result the governmental Australian market observers ABARES the upcoming Australian wheat crop estimates only 25.4 million tons. Thus, the ABARES analysts are 5% below the estimates of private forecasts.
As other crops such as chickpeas, lentils and other legumes promise better gross margins, the wheat acreage will probably shrink, so the Director of the agricultural Department of the ABARES. Yet the next harvest will be 5% higher than a year ago, because there was enough rain and the yield per hectare will be higher.
Last year, wheat prices since July had continuously dropped as large harvests are expected in the countries of Russia and the EU.
The Rabobank remains at their previous crop estimates for 2016/17 in Australia, as the soil moisture is currently good for Australia's East Coast, more favourable vegetation conditions expect the La Nina weather phenomenon. The estimate of Rabobank is located at 26.7 million tons, 10% above the previous year's.
The Meteorological Institute of Australia looks for La Nina currently a 50% chance. It brings the East Coast precipitation.
Other private estimates for Australia are zwischen25 and 26.1 million tons currently.
