Unless corn yields rise to unprecedented highs, the United States is likely to record the smallest corn harvest in three years this summer, according to Reuters analyst Karen Braun.
Read excerpts from her recent assessment of the US corn market:
When the US corn's expected corn acreage was unexpectedly estimated at 88 million acres last month, some market participants thought the actual acreage might be higher as it was still early and US farmers "like to grow corn".
But neither the futures market nor the weather support this idea. The winter has not eased its grip on the core of the US corn belt and could become the coldest April in the Midwest since 1895.
On Sunday, only 3% of the planned corn areas were planted, the 5-year average is 5%. Although it is too early to consider this to be late, very little, if any, progress is expected in the top countries this week. The soils remain largely too cold and the upper Midwest braces for another winter storm on Wednesday.
If less than 88 million acres of corn were grown in the United States in 2018, that would be the smallest area under cultivation since 2009.
If maize production is significantly below average by mid-May, market observers are seriously beginning to fear that sowing will fall below the target set for March by the Department of Agriculture, and for good reason.
In the last two decades, there were 10 cases where sowing on 15 May was below the long-term average of 75%. Total corn acreage was below the USDA estimates in March for eight of those ten years. This means that if progress from 2018 to mid-May is still well below the long-term average, the scenario with 88 million acres could be most generous.
