CASDE Report - China's corn deficit is widening

The Chinese monthly "Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (CASDE), released today, has some surprises in store.
The corn deficit in the 2018/19 season is therefore higher than estimated last month, as feed producers are increasingly using this grain and more compound feed plants have started production than expected.
There is therefore a deficit between inventory and consumption of 29.3 million tonnes. Last month, the Ministry of Agriculture still estimated 22.3 million tons.
There will be a reduction in stocks, although more corn was produced in the months of September 2017 to August 2018 than previously expected. Production this season is now estimated at 215 million tons, down from 213 million tons in the previous month. The acreage should have been expanded again. These figures are significantly lower than those of the Chinese Bureau of Statistics, which estimates the harvest volume at 259 million tons because it assumes a much larger acreage.
Corn consumption in 2018/19 is estimated at 245.8 million tonnes in the CASDE, compared to 236.8 million tonnes in the previous month. The demand of compound feed manufacturers will increase by 7% to 151.5 millionTons increase because there are new guidelines for feed manufacturers.
For example, it is warned that soybean meal consumption will decline noticeably in 2018/19, as pig populations can only be rebuilt slowly after the many outbreaks of African pig fever (ASF) and less protein-rich feed is also to be used. Since the beginning of August, more than 50 ASF outbreaks have been registered in China so far. A new guideline requires compound feed manufacturers to reduce protein-containing components. This is expected to consume 11 million tonnes less soybean meal.

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