After six trading days of price increases, CBoT soybean futures are currently giving up a small part of their gains. Some market participants doubt that China still needs to import very many soybeans and see a large crop growing in Brazil.
Due to the ASF crisis in China, import demand in China and other countries in Southeast Asia is falling. The ASF problem in China is probably much bigger than originally thought; feed producers are only now noticing this as orders from fatteners are drying up. They are ordering fewer raw material components such as soybeans and corn.
Grain traders are now focusing their interest on December 15 and are wondering whether Donald Trump will make good on his threat to raise punitive tariffs on further Chinese imports worth USD 160 billion. This could increase tensions between the two superpowers once again. The trade dispute is already entering its 17th month.
In yesterday's USDA report, government experts left their forecast for US ending stocks of corn and soybeans unchanged from the previous estimate. The crop estimates for Brazil and Argentina were also unchanged from their November forecast.
Source
HANSA Terminhandel