The CBoT wheat futures are already in their fourth consecutive session this morning and are currently trading at their two-week low. The wheat market is over-supplied with high supply quantities.
By contrast, soybean prices are rising this morning after plummeting to a five-week low as US providers are deeply insecure due to the trade dispute between the US and China.
Some hedgers have probably liquidated their hedge positions for the time being, argues the Commonwealth Bank of Australia agricultural strategist. But the price of wheat could fall even further, even though investors are still out of their long positions.
The USDA had estimated the US wheat harvest in 2018-1919 to be 1.821 billion bushels last week. This is above market expectations, which averaged 1.777 billion bushels. That would be 5% more than last year.
Winter wheat in the US Plains had suffered from dryness for months; the USDA had added it to their estimate but still summer wheat and Durum and comes up to an increase of 34% over the previous year.
In addition, Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, expects another record harvest.
The USDA had predicted a record for soybean exports in 2018/19 for the US on Thursday. The market was not expected to do so as Beijing is threatening to impose a 25% penalty on US soybean imports.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH / / Graphic: Saxo-Trader 
