The trade dispute between China and the US is changing the flow of goods for agricultural commodities.
Although Paraguay, the world's fourth-largest soybean exporter, has no diplomatic relations with China because the South American country is closely associated with Taiwan, there was recently a $ 2 billion trade in soybean supplies. The good relationship with Taiwan actually excludes China. Obviously, this currently does not matter, as China wants to make itself independent of soybean supplies from the USA.
However, deliveries are made through Uruguay, and China keeps its face in the Taiwan conflict. The possible Chinese punitive tariff of 25% on US soybeans urgently requires different origins for proteinaceous oil crops.
Chinese state-owned Cofco has secured 10% of Paraguayan soybean exports through the acquisition of the Hong Kong-based Nobel Group. So the Chinese are already in Paraguay.
Paraguay, the South American country without own sea access, ships its agricultural goods across rivers that pass through Argentina or Uruguay to reach the world market.
Paraguay's farmers harvest an estimated 10 million tonnes of soybeans in 2017/18; of which 6.13 million tonnes are exported. How much China gets from it is not transparent.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH / 
