China expects record grain harvest

In an overall weak market environment, wheat prices also fell yesterday. The December date on Euronext/Matif in Paris fell by 2.25 euros to a closing price of 237.75 euros/t. Prices on the cash markets in Germany also trended weaker. At the wholesale level, an average of around 1 euro less was quoted for bread wheat compared to Friday, and up to 2 euros per tonne for feed wheat. At the international level, new harvest reports from Russia caused price pressure. As of October 19, Russia had removed 92.9 million tons of wheat from the fields. At this point in the previous year the value was 104.2 million tons, but if the information is correct, there is still a very clearly above-average harvest in the country. The cultivated area in Russia is also smaller than last year and the area yields are also slightly lower than in the previous season. On the CBoT, however, wheat rose slightly. The December date improved by 1.25 US cents to 587.25 US cents/bu (202.21 euros/t). The overseas quotations were supported by rumors about Chinese purchases in the USA; according to the rumors, buyers from the Middle Kingdom are particularly focusing on soft wheat.However, the USDA's weekly export figures did not confirm these rumors. In the previous week, 168,868 wheat were actually loaded, more than 50 percent less than the previous week. The dollar has recently fallen slightly again and is also strengthening market participants' export hopes. However, China remains the focus of the wheat market. Several media outlets reported yesterday that China expects a record grain harvest in 2023 despite regional floods and regional droughts. The figures were not specific, only that the total amount of grain is likely to be higher for the ninth time in a row and the 650 million tons mark will be exceeded. However, before the trading session, the contracts on the CBoT fell significantly again this morning.

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