Cocereal expects larger EU wheat harvest

The day before the WASDE report was published, wheat fell sharply again. On Euronext/Matif, the front month showed a loss of 3.25 euros with a closing price of 218.25 euros/t. Things also went noticeably south at the CBoT. In its first forecast for the 2024 EU harvest, the European umbrella association of grain traders Coceral sees a harvest volume of 133.5 million tonnes (including durum wheat). If this estimate is correct, the 2023 harvest would be exceeded by 700,000 tons. For France, Germany, but also for Poland and parts of the Baltics, the harvest forecasts have been reduced compared to the previous year, but can be offset by countries such as Spain, Denmark and Sweden. Ukraine's exports are also having a negative impact on European prices. Various associations, especially from Eastern Europe, now also held talks with the responsible EU Agriculture Commissioner Wojchiechowski and called for a European solution to limit the price drop caused by Ukrainian deliveries, especially in Ukraine's neighboring countries. Across the Atlantic, weekly export sales were the focus of market participants. At 128,000 tons, these were more than disappointing.Quantities of at least 200,000 to 450,000 tons had been expected in advance. Today at 6:00 p.m. our time, the USDA will release its first WASDE report of the year. The quarterly report on inventory developments in the USA is also expected. Here, market participants are expecting higher storage volumes due to the good US harvest and weak export volumes. A decline is expected for US sowing compared to the previous year. Before the trading session, the leading dates on the CBoT this morning are trending with slight green signs.

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