A senior executive from state-owned Chinese grain trader COFCO spoke on the sidelines of an online conference today on the Phase 1 deal with the United States. He assumes that Chinese purchases of US agricultural commodities will now accelerate.
Soybeans are the top agricultural commodity in the United States when exported to China.
However, higher soybean stocks and falling crush margins could make US bean purchases unattractive. From May to September, China consumes the largest quantities of soybeans a year. For the oil mills, however, it is important how good their wages are. It is becoming apparent that this service will bring little money in the near future.
China will probably import 87.5 million tons of soybeans in the 2019/20 marketing year. 13.7 million tons come from the USA, 63.73 million tons from Brazil. China has now also allowed US barley to be imported.
Source
Hansa Terminhandel GmbH