Conab significantly reduces expectations for soy harvest - but there are still red signs in the soy complex

The recovery in the soy complex did not last long. Yesterday the oilseed went south again in double digits to a closing price of 1,236.50 US cents/bu (414.09 euros/t) in the most traded March contract. January said goodbye to the stock market. Soybean meal also showed red signs and soybean oil also fell. In an updated harvest forecast yesterday, Brazil's agricultural authority Conab significantly reduced the production volume from the previous 160 million tons to 155.3 million tons and attributed this to the weather conditions at the start of sowing. The fact that soybeans were unable to increase despite the corrected forecast is also due to the fact that, despite the reduced forecast, a larger harvest is still expected and thus a new harvest record compared to the previous year. The private analysis house Safras & Mercado also reduced its forecast and estimates the harvest at 151.4 million tons. For the WASDE tomorrow, Friday, market participants are also expecting slight adjustments by the USDA for Brazil. Today the Agriculture Ministry will release weekly export sales. The analysts are not particularly optimistic and only expect a range between 250,000 and 400,000 tons.

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