31.
08.18
09:24

Concern over Russian and Ukrainian milling wheat exports

Ukraine and Russia harvested less milling wheat than originally expected. During the harvest it had rained and deteriorated the grain quality. There may soon be export restrictions, according to market watchers.
Kiev and Moscow have agreed that there is no need for export restrictions. But the ministers of agriculture of the two export-oriented countries are watching closely the situation on the cereal market.
It must be expected that high wheat exports, the price of staple food will increase bread and fuel inflation. The currencies of both countries are currently very weak. The ruble is at its lowest level since April 2016, the national currency of Ukraine Hryvnia is as weak as it has not since January.
Thus, both countries undoubtedly have reason enough to control their grain exports. Since mid-August, therefore, the discussions of the Russian Minister of Agriculture with the exporters in the public interest moved.
In the event that export duties are levied from December, the exporters are now hurrying to complete their exports as early as possible.So it could happen that Ukraine carries out 6 million tons of milling wheat before the end of the year. However, as exports are expected to total only 8 million tonnes for the entire marketing year until 30.06.2019, state intervention should soon follow.
Russia has already announced that 25 million tons of wheat exports will lead to export restrictions. Since 1 July, it has reached 6.4 million tonnes to date. High world market prices have boosted good exports. The weak Russian currency is doing the rest. The supply of quality wheat this year is not as big as last year. At that time, 65.2% of the wheat had milling quality, with only 44% in some regions this year.
If wheat prices on the world market continue to rise in the coming weeks, it should come immediately to export restrictions in Russia, so the conclusion of the market experts.

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