The courses of the CBoT Maisfutures have recovered properly at the end of today's night market, after the Brazilian agricultural consultant CONAB released its latest crop estimate. Then, the Brazilian corn crop is estimated only at 69.1 million tons, after 76.2 million tonnes in the June estimate. Also the USDA came finally from 77.5 million tonnes.
So the crop the CONAB estimates arrives, would be 15.9% this year less than in the previous year and the export market will change then clearly. Brazil's national corn consumption was previously 55 to 57 million tons, the USDA goes out of 58 million tonnes. Then would the closing stock at 5.9 million tons and Brazil could export only 14 million tons. The USDA came finally from 22.5 million tonnes.
The cut in Brazil's corn exports is offset partly by a huge expansion of a larger seven to ten million tonnes maize production in Argentina next year. In between, a temporary shortage but may be found on the world market, the United States could profit from next spring.
That could soon reverse the extremely bearish sentiment on the futures market.
