The price of crude oil today rises to a two-and-a-half-year high. Higher production volumes in the USA and Russia are dampening a market boom that is being fueled by the unrest in Iran.
Brent futures are currently priced at $ 67.50 / barrel. This is the highest price since the beginning of May 2015. Commerzbank analysts rate the market overheated and believe the price will soon reach the $ 60 mark again. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank, on the other hand, warns that potential delivery problems could further fuel sentiment due to the failure of a Libyan pipeline through Iraq or lower deliveries from the BP oil field in the North Sea. The speculation are currently no limits.
If these problems are solved, the courses could give way again, says Hansen. The US is already reacting with higher production volumes. The supply on the world market is plentiful. Since mid-2016, US production has increased 16% to 9.75 million barrels a day (bpd).
In addition, Russia does not adhere to its OPEC-constrained production capacity limit of 300,000 bpd to 11,247 million bpd.
A possible slowdown in Chinese economic growth in 2018 would also depress crude oil prices. Therefore, it is quite possible that by the end of 2018 the prices of Brent futures could again be below 60 USD / barrel.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH / / Graphic: Saxo-Trader 
