Many analysts are of the opinion that the Argentine soybean harvest is as good as dead. Crop forecasts have been reduced to perennial lows in recent weeks. Weekend rainfall and forecasts of further precipitation expected next weekend could possibly improve the situation. That believes Karen Braun, analyst at the news service Reuters.
A significant drought has reduced crop expectations for many soybean farmers in Argentina. Argentina is one of the leading exporters of soy products. In fact, Argentina's harvest will be smaller, but there is a possibility that the losses will not be as great as some expect, Karen Braun said. Not all production regions got rain last weekend. But in some areas it has rained up to 25 mm - much more than was recently expected. By late Monday, weather services had calculated that this could happen again on or about Saturday.
It is important to know that the current and expected humidity is not necessarily too late, because the yield-determining phase is not yet very advanced.On Thursday, 72 percent of soybeans in the province of Buenos Aires were in the pod filling phase, according to weekly data from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture. Cordobá had 78 percent of its harvest at this stage, and together, the two provinces make up about two-thirds of the country's bean production. About 6 percent of the soybeans in each of these provinces were in bloom and the remainder was in the process of maturation.
The province of Santa Fe No. 3 is more affected by the drought. The harvests are in much worse shape than in the top provinces, and 41 percent of soybeans already ripen on 15 March.
On March 15, around 60 percent of soybeans in Cordoba and 61 percent in Buenos Aires were in good or very good condition, compared with 64 percent for both at the beginning of the month. The February 1 rating was 78 percent in Buenos Aires and 87 percent in Cordoba.
At the end of last week, the Rosario Grains Exchange in Argentina cut the country's soybean harvest forecast to 40 million tons from 46.5 million last month.The grain exchange in Buenos Aires has recently revised its outlook to 42 million tonnes, well below the original forecast of 54 million tonnes.
The US Department of Agriculture slashed its forecast earlier this month from 54 million to 47 million tons, but the estimated harvest area is 1.5 million hectares higher than originally estimated by the US Department of Agriculture.
The USDA estimated the Argentine soybean harvest 2017/18 last May at 57 million tonnes.
While recent and upcoming rainfall in Argentina can not reverse all the damage caused, it would be unwise to write off the season in Argentina right now.
It is important to know that the current and expected humidity is not necessarily too late, because the yield-determining phase is not yet very advanced.On Thursday, 72 percent of soybeans in the province of Buenos Aires were in the pod filling phase, according to weekly data from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture. Cordobá had 78 percent of its harvest at this stage, and together, the two provinces make up about two-thirds of the country's bean production. About 6 percent of the soybeans in each of these provinces were in bloom and the remainder was in the process of maturation.
The province of Santa Fe No. 3 is more affected by the drought. The harvests are in much worse shape than in the top provinces, and 41 percent of soybeans already ripen on 15 March.
On March 15, around 60 percent of soybeans in Cordoba and 61 percent in Buenos Aires were in good or very good condition, compared with 64 percent for both at the beginning of the month. The February 1 rating was 78 percent in Buenos Aires and 87 percent in Cordoba.
At the end of last week, the Rosario Grains Exchange in Argentina cut the country's soybean harvest forecast to 40 million tons from 46.5 million last month.The grain exchange in Buenos Aires has recently revised its outlook to 42 million tonnes, well below the original forecast of 54 million tonnes.
The US Department of Agriculture slashed its forecast earlier this month from 54 million to 47 million tons, but the estimated harvest area is 1.5 million hectares higher than originally estimated by the US Department of Agriculture.
The USDA estimated the Argentine soybean harvest 2017/18 last May at 57 million tonnes.
While recent and upcoming rainfall in Argentina can not reverse all the damage caused, it would be unwise to write off the season in Argentina right now.
