Warm and dry weather in the European Union has encouraged wheat stocks after a wet and cold start in the spring; Now, heat and drought are threatening in some regions of the crop, just before the stocks enter a profit-making phase.
At the moment it looks generally good. We had little rain last time, but the reserves in the ground were good, according to a market analyst from Agritel. In the west of Europe it looks better than in the east.
The warm phase after the wet spring would have been good for the stocks in France and Spain. Better than in the dry summer before. In France, 80% of wheat stocks are in good to very good condition, according to FranceAgriMer. Hailstorm thunderstorms in France would have caused great damage regionally.
Traders expect a soft wheat crop in France of 37-38 million tonnes (previous year: 36.6), more than a five-year average.
In the UK too, the prospects for wheat harvest are promising. Four weeks ago the expectation was still at an average harvest, now one speaks of high yields.Similar to France, but because of the heat and the many rains there is a Fusarium pressure. The British wheat harvest is estimated to range from 14.65 to 15.25 million tonnes, the IGC expects 14.6 million tonnes - similar to the previous year (14.8).
In Germany, farmers are worried about the drought in the north. The main export regions in the north and east are already suffering greatly. A wet June could save the earnings, but it does not look like it at the moment. According to the farmers' association, the German wheat harvest should be 2% smaller than in the previous year. That was an estimate from mid-May.
In Poland's northwest you also need rain. If there is no rain in the next 10 days, the conditions, especially for the summer crop, are very bad. Analysts estimate that the Polish wheat harvest is 8% smaller than last year, as both yields and acreage are smaller.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH /
