The current drought in large parts of Europe is causing the experts to worry. Even the bumpy start due to too much rain when tilling the field last autumn could limit the yields for the next harvest.
It is currently far too dry in Central and Eastern Germany and in Poland. The prediction of summer temperatures and only a few rainfalls further escalates the stress for the fields.
In France, the fields are currently looking a little better. But there is also an urgent wait for rain there. On March 30, the consulting company FranceAgriMer rated 62% of the wheat fields with the top rating "good-to-excellent". A year ago it was 84% on this date. However, the wheat acreage was reduced by 7.5% and is therefore at a 17-year low of 4.6 million hectares.
In Great Britain, too, the acreage was drastically reduced (-17% to 1.5 million hectares) because it was too wet to sow there last fall. However, a larger acreage of summer wheat cannot compensate for the loss. Some of the fields were under water for a long time in winter and the waterlogging could cost yield.
In Germany, winter wheat developed well in the mild winter. The field stocks generally give a good impression. Now rain has to come urgently. It is the driest in eastern Germany. A harvest of 23 million tons is currently expected in 2020, as in the previous year. Better yields would offset a 6% decline in crops.
A similar picture in Poland: Rain is urgently needed to keep the wheat field stocks in good condition. If there is no rain in April, you will have to lower the harvest estimates. So far, the forecast is 11.5 million tons of wheat, which would be 4% more than in 2019.
Source
Hansa Terminhandel GmbH
