Dynamics of Brazilian soy exports are declining

Soybeans halted their rally yesterday. The most traded November contract in Chicago closed with a loss of 13.25 US cents/bu and is thus quoted at the equivalent of 470.60 euros/t. Soybean meal was also significantly weaker with a daily loss of $7.10/short ton and a settlement of $412.60/short ton (EUR 417.00/t). In particular, the crop report published on Monday continued to have an impact yesterday. The condition ratings had been reduced less significantly than previously anticipated by the market. According to the USDA, 58 percent are in good or very good condition, down one percentage point from a week ago, but far below what the market average was expecting. The USDA was able to report high export sales on Monday, followed yesterday by two more for 250,000 tons of soybeans and 105,000 tons of soybean meal. In both cases, the origin of the buyers is unknown. Meanwhile, Brazilian exports have stalled. The industry association Anec significantly lowered its forecast for August exports from 8.7 million tons to 7.3 million tons. Slow loading in the South American export ports has been repeatedly reported recently.

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