The warm and dry weather in Europe could reduce rapeseed yields. Rapeseed is the most important oilseed produced in Europe. Field crops have been suffering from other difficult weather conditions since sowing.
The summer weather this month was beneficial for other crops after a wet and cold spring stressed the plants. The rapeseed is hit by the dryness but in the sensitive flowering phase.
European harvest observer MARS lowered its rape seed forecast on Tuesday, putting it below the 2017 harvest. Rape is actually considered a robust crop, but hot weather predicted for the coming days boosts fears of yield losses.
In France, mixed yields are likely to offset the benefits of increased acreage. It is expected to be 3.3 tonnes per hectare, which corresponds to a multi-year average.
In Germany, the plants grew too quickly in warm weather and it was initially hoped that good yields would compensate for a limited acreage.In the last week, the German Farmers' Association lowered its forecast for the German rapeseed harvest in 2018 to 4.12 out of 4.62 million tons. That would be 3.3% less than in the previous year. And less than the five-year average.
In Poland, rapeseed production will fall by 23% to 2.14 million tonnes this year. Even there it is currently too dry. The average yield per hectare is estimated at 2.85 tonnes / hectare (previous year: 3.1t / ha).
In the UK, too, the income risk increases. A cold start into the spring prevented a good rooting which now causes the plants can not draw enough water. The British rapeseed crop is estimated to be 11% higher than the year before, as the acreage increased accordingly.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH / 
