Biofuel consumption in the European Union is expected to decrease by 2031 as fossil fuel road traffic decreases. The European Commission announced today that palm oil imports will collapse due to stricter environmental regulations.
In its Agricultural Outlook 2021-2031, the Commission predicts that biodiesel consumption in the EU will decrease by 24% to 14.3 billion liters in 2031, after a high of 18.9 billion liters in 2023.
Bioethanol consumption would be less affected as it also has non-fuel applications, but will still drop 10% to 6.4 billion liters in 2031 after rising to 7.1 billion liters in 2023.
The decline in biodiesel would mainly affect the use of palm oil due to stricter sustainability criteria, while the use of rapeseed oil is expected to remain stable and account for around half of the biodiesel raw material.
According to the EU directive on renewable energies, palm oil-based fuels should no longer be used by 2030, as palm oil is responsible for destroying primeval forests by the EU.This is a rating that is facing resistance from the world's two largest palm oil producers, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Palm oil imports into the EU are expected to decline from 6.5 million tonnes in 2021 to 4.0 million tonnes by 2031, with most of the decline being due to falling demand for biodiesel, the commission said .
The EU is expected to remain a net importer of biofuels, but also biodiesel imports are likely to be limited due to countervailing duties on imports from Argentina and Indonesia.
In the case of ethanol production, the Commission assumes that corn will remain the most important raw material with a share of around 44%, while the use of wheat will decline and other cereals and sugar beets will remain relatively stable.
Source
Hansa Terminhandel GmbH