The prospects for the European wheat harvest have deteriorated steadily in recent weeks, because the heavy rainfall have caused more damage in the spring, as previously feared. The French grain harvest will be the worst for 13 years.
ODA consulting firm expects a wheat crop of less than 30 million tonnes for France, the largest wheat producer in the EU. These are again two million tonnes less than estimated in the last week. On 6 July, it was still by 35 million tons. The French wheat harvest of 2015 was 41 million tons.
Especially in Northern France, where the wheat harvest has just begun, the yields are worse than expected. All estimates here are only preliminary. In the heartland of French wheat growing, recurring rain showers and no sunshine cause catastrophic income. Yesterday, wheat prices on the Paris MATIF shortly before close of trading by over 4% increased because some short hedgers were stocking their positions after this message to the market.
The quality of the crop the farmers gives headache. In particular the specific gravity, a relevant criterion for export, is extremely low. Small income with low test weights lead to high protein contents.
In Germany, the situation is not quite so dramatic after assessment by Agritel. The wheat crop is estimated at 26.03 million tons, which are only 1.9% less than in the good year. In the South and in the middle of Germany, where it was the most rain, the situation looks but also bleak.
In Poland, the wheat harvest to fail even less than in the previous year. The last estimate, that is me, is at 10.7 million tonnes (- 10% to the previous year). The harvest starts in the coming ten days.
In the United Kingdom, the wheat harvest will start end of July and continue in August to the fullest. Expect 15 to 15.5 million tons, yields and area are both lower than in the previous year, when 16.4 million tonnes came together. Fusarium cause problems, they can make Mykotxine.
