2016/17 wheat exports from the Black Sea countries of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will be smaller in the coming season by 10.1%, than in the current season. This is the result of a Reuters poll. Reason for the decline is smaller acreage in the Ukraine, as well as a dry autumn 2015.
All three countries operate North African countries and the Middle East with wheat on the Black Sea. The exports come together to 42.7 million tons, so the poll results. The crops in the three countries will be averaged 4.8% less than on 97.2 million tonnes. Russia could export wheat according to the opinion of the respondents 25 million tonnes, 2% more than in the ending year. The Russian wheat crop is estimated at 62.1 million tons, which would be 1.7% more than in the previous year.
Thus, Russia would beat his own export record of this year, coming after estimation of the USDA to 24.5 million tons of wheat.
Wheat exports from the Ukraine falling in 2016/17 to 10.8 million tons, compared with 15.5 million tonnes (USDA estimate) this season. The wheat harvest in the Ukraine is reduced compared to the previous year by 20% to 21.8 million tons.
The largest wheat producer in Central Asia Kazakhstan will export 6.9 million tons of wheat including wheat flour. That would be 8% less than in this season and is based on a 3% smaller harvest, which would then amount to 13.3 million tons.
The estimate excludes the Crimean peninsula for Russia and the Ukraine on the 750,000 metric tons of wheat to grow. For the local authority, it is hard to export wheat, because the legal status is unclear, after Russia has annexed the island under international protest in 2014. Due to Western sanctions against Russia and the war in the East which suffers from Ukraine the economies of both countries and the currencies have been devalued against the major currencies of the world.
As a result, that exports from these countries to the dollar-dominated world market in cereals were more competitive. This makes an assessment of grain exports from these countries so hard. In addition come opportunities and risks from the weather.
In Russia, for example, too much rain could affect the harvesting and sowing is not even completed in Kazakhstan. The experts expect keen competition between the Black Sea region and the EU for the next marketing period again.
