Technical sales, losses at the soybean and corn complex and improved weather conditions in the Black Sea region caused wheat prices in Chicago to drop to a 4-week low yesterday. Institutional investors sold 6,500 lots of CBoT SRW wheat yesterday. The e-CBoT is stable this morning.
The wheat futures in Paris followed the weak overseas guidelines. The French agricultural consultancy FranceAgriMer has increased its forecast for French wheat exports to destinations outside the EU in 2019/20 from 12.7 million tons (March forecast) to 13.2 million tons. This raised the forecast for the 7th time in a row (+ 36% on the previous year). If this were realized, the record result from 2010/11 would be exceeded (12.9 million tons). At that time, Russia had an export embargo. FranceAgriMer estimates the wheat stocks at the end of the season on June 30, 2020 at only 2.6 million tons. Because of the continuing high demand for EU wheat and because Romania no longer ships to third countries, the premium for wheat from Hamburg is 6 € / tonne above the Matif May date. Egypt plans to import 800,000 tons of wheat in the coming weeks, and France has good chances.
Source
Hansa Terminhandel GmbH