Since our last oilseed mail, the prices of CBoT soybeans have been steadily declining. The reason for this is the imminent soybean harvest in Brazil, which, according to the latest estimates, will be a record harvest of more than 110 million tonnes. At the same time US exporters complain about disappointing bean exports, which are partly justified with poor quality. The fact that Argentina is still struggling with drought, which is likely to lead to a loss of earnings in the upcoming sowing, has long been priced into the futures market rates. At the start of the year, the funds were in all CBoT's agricultural futures with short positions as high as ever. However, very strong crude oil prices mean that the energy futures, including soybeans and rapeseed, are no longer declining.
Last week, rape seed futures even went up on the Parisian Matif and, by way of exception, did not follow the trend set from overseas. The firmer prices in this country even go down to the producer level and give the farmers a slight mark-up. The willingness to pay is still not very pronounced. In contrast, the demand of the biodiesel industry for rapeseed oil is low.Cheap imports from South America spoiled the mood of the local producers. In contrast, there was more interest in rapeseed meal. The global supply of oilseeds is high and many buyers are speculating on discounts.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH - own research
