A manageable German stock of rapeseed in the hands of producers as well as small stocks in Ukraine give suppliers hope for further price increases. Supplies from abroad are now noticeably losing momentum. Imports from other third countries such as Australia, where extreme weather conditions prevail, are unlikely. On the futures exchange in Paris, prices for rapeseed have risen continuously since the end of November. An end to the bull market is not yet in sight.
The market for oilseed meal is being influenced by the forthcoming Phase 1 deal between the USA and China. The larger supply of soybean meal from Brazil will probably not come until after the carnival season. In the meantime, more rapeseed meal is being offered in Germany, but buyers are not particularly interested in this.
With the firmer futures market prices for rapeseed, prices for rapeseed oil have also risen. Lively demand is being reported from the biodiesel sector. The price advantage of rapeseed oil over other vegetable oils is melting and is currently only €45/tonne. US soybean oil benefited from the Phase 1 deal. Market participants expect more US soybeans to reach China. As a result, fewer soybeans are being processed in the US and there is a shortage of the by-products oil and meal.
Source
HANSA Terminhandel
