IGC lowers forecast for global ending inventories

The countermovement in wheat lasted only briefly. Yesterday, Thursday, the contracts on the Euronext/Matif closed again with a red sign. The September contract closed with a loss of 1.75 euros at 228.00 euros/t. The meanwhile most traded December date stands at EUR 238.35 and yesterday also lost EUR 1.75 per ton. Prices on the local cash markets have recently also been under pressure, although sales outside of the existing contracts are largely insignificant. The quality concerns remain. In southern Germany there are still some wheat stocks in the fields, and spring barley has not yet fully grown. Grinding qualities for wheat or quality requirements of the malting plants for barley are hardly achieved. Yesterday, the International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its harvest forecast from the previous level of 784.1 million tons, but corrected consumption and thus ending stocks downwards. The latter should be 260.9 million tons at the end of the current marketing year and thus 2.3 million tons lower than previously expected.The Ukrainian analysis company APK-Inform has increased its forecast for grain production there and expects a wheat harvest of 20.6 million tons and an export potential of 12 million tons. The USDA forecast a Ukrainian harvest of 21 million tons and exports of 10.5 million tons in its August WASDE last Friday. India has reportedly bought 9 million tons of wheat from Russia. Due to low stocks in the country and a high inflation rate for food, the government apparently wants to counteract inflation with this step. Wheat also went south on the CBoT. There is more and more harvest pressure here due to the ongoing winter and spring wheat harvest. In addition, weekly export sales of 359,000 tons were well below the values of the previous week.

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