Inadequate rainfall and heat in India endanger wheat harvest in 2019

India's wheat production could be significantly weaker in 2019 than the record harvest this year. In the core growing regions much less rain has fallen and high temperatures are likely to limit the yields of winter cereals. This is the result of a Reuters poll among farmers and analysts.
Lower grain yields in India, the world's second largest wheat producer, could cause the Delhi government to cut wheat import tariffs to maintain orderly supplies in the country. This would most likely influence the stock market price of the CBoT.
The states of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are by far the largest wheat producer in the subcontinent, accounting for 45% of India's wheat. In these two states, during the monsoon season, it rained 10% less than usual between June and September. In addition, high temperatures impede grain growth.
By 30 November, India had grown to 15.3 million hectares of winter wheat. In the previous year, there were 15.7 million hectares. Alone due to the smaller acreage, the grain harvest in 2019 should be smaller.
In 2018, India received 99.7 million. Tons of wheat together.Because of the lack of rainfall, wheat prices in the country have already risen by 15%. In addition, the rupee exchange rate has expired, making imports more expensive.
Instead, the government will first put government reserves on the market. The state wheat stocks are estimated to be 33.14 million tonnes on 1 November 2018. An increase of 39% compared to the same date last year.
If the price rises by another 10% to more than 2,200 rupees / ton, the government can lower import tariffs. Despite the already rising prices, the farmers are frustrated because resources such as fertilizers and diesel have become expensive.
Indian millers imported 1.65 million tonnes of wheat in 2017/18, compared with 5.7 million tonnes a year earlier. Suppliers were Australia, Russia and Ukraine.

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