Weather models indicate that that in July a strong El will be Nino effect by Japanese meteorologists again. Currently there are but no weather premiums in cereal prices, on the contrary: wheat prices have decreased by 20% and other crops, as well as rice record now on a multi-month low.
A strong El Nino affects in particular the Asian economies such as India, that have a high dependence on agriculture. In India, farmers already suffered under a three-month drought, while it was wet in January at planting time.
The new weather models are taken seriously now by many observers very. Far less rain has fallen during the monsoon season in India. The cotton and soybean harvesting is now under special observation. Fewer soya beans mean higher imports of edible oils. India's rice production is also affected, Indian reserves are still very large, so that the prices of these should change so fast.