The International Sugar Organization (ISO) today raised its estimated sugar surplus for the 2017/18 season from 5.15 million tonnes in the previous month to 10.51 million tonnes.
Since February, the impression of a surplus has become more and more dense. The world sugar industry has to deal with some late surprises that have fundamentally darkened the picture.
The independent international organization estimates global sugar production 2017/18 (October-Sept) now at 185.21 million tonnes, the previous estimate was still 178.7 million tonnes and 10.3% over the previous year.
The dramatic increase is a result of spectacular harvests in India and Thailand that did not reveal until the end of the growing season. ISO also raised the estimate for India to 31.4 million tonnes from the previously estimated 26 million tonnes. Thai production is now estimated at 14.35 million tonnes, after 12 million tonnes previously.
The higher estimate is partially offset by a lower production estimate in Brazil, where 34.5 million tonnes are expected this season, compared to 36 million tonnes previously estimated.
The current revision of global fundamentals suggests that final stock will reach a new record. At the beginning of May, experts still believed in a surplus of 8.5 million tons but also a further increase in the next season.
In its previous report, ISO reported a sugar deficit of 3.67 million tonnes for the previous 2016/17 season.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH / 
