Before summer cereals are sown in the Black Sea region in the coming weeks, it has to rain there. The winter was too warm and too dry, according to analysts and government officials.
The countries of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan compete in the grain trade for the favor of buyers in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Yields in the surplus regions have steadily improved over the past few years because cultivation methods have improved. Now everything depends on the weather.
At first glance, the fields look very good there, but the water reserves are low and there are hardly any possibilities for irrigation. The earnings trend now depends on the rainfall in the coming weeks. The weather services do not predict precipitation for the next two weeks.
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, expects a grain harvest of 125 million tons in 2020. That is 4 million tons more than in the previous year. Because demand on the world market for Russian soybeans is good, farmers want to expand cultivation. This is at the expense of the summer cereal acreage. Ukraine is ahead in terms of corn exports.
The field crops for winter cereals in Russia currently look very good.Only 6% of the areas are in poor condition. It's not quite as good in Ukraine. The farmers there want to compensate for the disadvantage of summer cereals such as barley and corn. Here, however, the floors are drier than last year. The harvest estimates are 5-10 million tons lower than last year.
Kazakhstan produces more summer cereals than Russia and Ukraine. The buyers for this are buyers in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Iran. The area under cereals will probably be restricted this year. To do this, more sunflowers should be grown.
Source
HANSA Terminhandel
