Are there any weather risks for wheat and rapeseed in the EU?
In the European Union, the conditions of the last two years were not ideal for wheat and rape seed production. The grain stocks suffered from heavy rainfall or drought accompanied by heat waves.
In the current season is reported by no major Auswinterungsschäden. If the required rainfall falls in spring and early summer, an average wheat crop of 156 million tonnes and an average rapeseed crop of 22.7 million tonnes is expected. In unfavorable conditions, ie late frost in spring during rape flowering and drought in spring and summer, the harvest could be significantly smaller at 138 million tonnes or 19.6 million tonnes. However, optimal conditions could raise the result to 162 million tonnes of wheat and 24 million tonnes of rapeseed.
Higher prices and increased demand for rape seed are likely to increase winter rape area this year.However, locally unfavorable weather conditions in Europe (especially in Germany and Poland) discouraged farmers from ordering all planned land for sowing. Low barley prices will result in a decline in acreage and a shift to more profitable crops.
In France, the largest wheat and rapeseed producer in the EU, the winter cereal crop was on the fast track on average. Generally dry conditions were beneficial for uniform planting speed and for plant development. Before entering the hibernation, the plants could develop well and the Auswinterungsschäden were low.
In Germany, the EU's second largest wheat and rapeseed producer, heavy autumn precipitation in the north resulted in very wet soils. The sowing could not take place on all planned locations. The NDVI is mostly above normal, but given the record soil moisture in the northern areas, grain could be more vulnerable to pests and disease.
Cereal production in Eastern Europe
In contrast to Germany and Poland, regions in southern Europe are facing a major moisture deficit after a severe drought last summer. In these regions, further rainfall is important for good stock development. In the last decade, revenues in Eastern Europe increased on average by 15-25% across all countries. The biggest development was in Romania. There, yields increased by 5% annually. Wheat yields of 4.14 tonnes per hectare in the marketing year 2018/19 are to be expected. In favorable weather, even higher yields could be achieved. In Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, wheat yield estimates are 4.75-6.35 tonnes per hectare. For the rest of Europe, relatively stable to slightly higher yields are expected. In the EU-28, wheat yields are estimated at 5.89 tonnes per hectare (common wheat: 6.15 tonnes per hectare, Durum: 3.63 tonnes per hectare) and rape seed yields at 3.38 tonnes per hectare.
In the long run, the authors of the report expect the danger of hot and dry weather in the spring in southern Europe, which could also affect the crop regions in the south of France.
Source: HANSA Derivatives Trading /
In the European Union, the conditions of the last two years were not ideal for wheat and rape seed production. The grain stocks suffered from heavy rainfall or drought accompanied by heat waves.
In the current season is reported by no major Auswinterungsschäden. If the required rainfall falls in spring and early summer, an average wheat crop of 156 million tonnes and an average rapeseed crop of 22.7 million tonnes is expected. In unfavorable conditions, ie late frost in spring during rape flowering and drought in spring and summer, the harvest could be significantly smaller at 138 million tonnes or 19.6 million tonnes. However, optimal conditions could raise the result to 162 million tonnes of wheat and 24 million tonnes of rapeseed.
Higher prices and increased demand for rape seed are likely to increase winter rape area this year.However, locally unfavorable weather conditions in Europe (especially in Germany and Poland) discouraged farmers from ordering all planned land for sowing. Low barley prices will result in a decline in acreage and a shift to more profitable crops.
In France, the largest wheat and rapeseed producer in the EU, the winter cereal crop was on the fast track on average. Generally dry conditions were beneficial for uniform planting speed and for plant development. Before entering the hibernation, the plants could develop well and the Auswinterungsschäden were low.
In Germany, the EU's second largest wheat and rapeseed producer, heavy autumn precipitation in the north resulted in very wet soils. The sowing could not take place on all planned locations. The NDVI is mostly above normal, but given the record soil moisture in the northern areas, grain could be more vulnerable to pests and disease.
Cereal production in Eastern Europe
In contrast to Germany and Poland, regions in southern Europe are facing a major moisture deficit after a severe drought last summer. In these regions, further rainfall is important for good stock development. In the last decade, revenues in Eastern Europe increased on average by 15-25% across all countries. The biggest development was in Romania. There, yields increased by 5% annually. Wheat yields of 4.14 tonnes per hectare in the marketing year 2018/19 are to be expected. In favorable weather, even higher yields could be achieved. In Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, wheat yield estimates are 4.75-6.35 tonnes per hectare. For the rest of Europe, relatively stable to slightly higher yields are expected. In the EU-28, wheat yields are estimated at 5.89 tonnes per hectare (common wheat: 6.15 tonnes per hectare, Durum: 3.63 tonnes per hectare) and rape seed yields at 3.38 tonnes per hectare.
In the long run, the authors of the report expect the danger of hot and dry weather in the spring in southern Europe, which could also affect the crop regions in the south of France.
Source: HANSA Derivatives Trading /
