It is currently too dry in Argentina's grain belt; however, even if no more rain falls for the time being, the maize and soybean crops can still produce large harvests. Much depends on the development of surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, and these have not yet shown any particular characteristics this year.
In 2018/19, Argentina harvested 51 million tons of corn and 55.3 million tons of soybeans. This was the third-largest harvest in the South American country, which is the third-largest exporter of these crops. It is even the world market leader for soy products.
The rainfall in the months from January to March is crucial for the development of the maize and soybean crops. However, it will remain dry there for the next 10-14 days. If the surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise more than 0.5°C above normal, the probability of sufficient rainfall in Argentina also increases. For 22 years, there has only been one year in which this rule did not apply.
On December 5, the Argentinian Ministry of Agriculture reported the best starting conditions for the seeds that are already in the ground. However, the sowing of soybeans has been delayed by a few days.
Source
HANSA Terminhandel
