The grain stocks in the European Union are not suffering any risks this winter as there has been a mild weather so far. Market participants are now concentrating on the sowing of summer cereals, as not all land in countries such as Poland and Germany could be ordered during the wet autumn with winter cereals.
Analysts point out the risk of hibernation when there is still freezing temperatures without a protective blanket of snow. But we have no clues.
France, Europe's largest cereal grower, has seen a lot of rain since December, but field crops tend to look very good because sowing conditions were beneficial.
Although there are a few fields with waterlogging, according to the market analyst Agritel, this has no impact on yields. Without the rain one would now talk about dryness, as it did last year at that time .... The winter precipitation exceeds the seasonal amount by 30%. January also started too wet in France.
FranceAgriMer still rated the wheat stocks at 95% as good to very good at the beginning of December. The acreage remained at the same level as in the previous year.In contrast, significantly less rapeseed was grown.
Even in Germany, there were only a few days with severe frost and the crops survived the much too wet autumn without major problems. However, not all planned areas with wheat and rapeseed were ordered. It is curious to see what summertime they are ordered. German winter wheat acreage fell by 4.7% compared with the previous year, while rape cultivation lost 2.6%. On open land, summer wheat, spring barley, oats and other summer fruits are likely to be ordered.
In Poland it looks similar. There too too much rain had thwarted the sowing of winter crops. There is still a lot of waterlogging reported. The winter wheat area is 10% smaller than in the previous year, the rape area loses 10 to 12%. There were no hibernations so far.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH /
