The EU Commission today issued a 10-year forecast for the cultivation of rapeseed.
According to the report, Europe's most popular oilseed will lose ground as demand for biodiesel eases and products from other oilseeds than animal feed gain market share.
There will be a significant area restriction on rape seed to only 6 million hectares by 2030/31. An average of 6.5 million hectares of oilseeds have been ordered in the EU over the past five years. Increasing yields will partially offset the area restrictions, but overall production will decline. Already it can be felt that there is a trend from rapeseed to soybean. This trend will continue because there is uncertainty about first-generation biofuels.
Rapeseed produces 60% of the biodiesel produced in the EU. If the demand for it now diminishes, that first applies to rapeseed consumption. Rapeseed demand for biodiesel will decrease by 2030/31 to 9.1 million tonnes, currently 10.5 million tonnes.
Commission experts estimate that EU rapeseed production will decline to 20.7 million tonnes by 2030/31 from the current 21.7 million tonnes.
EU soybean production will increase to 3 million tonnes by 2030/31 (currently 2.7 million tonnes). Imports of soybeans and soybean meal are becoming increasingly attractive as a source of protein in animal feed.
Sunflower production will also benefit from the decline in rapeseed production at the end of the period.
The Commission is more optimistic about the development of wheat production in the EU. By 2030/31, the Community of 28 will export 36.8 million tonnes. Currently there are 27 million tons. Growing demand from the Mediterranean, especially the sub-Saharan region and the Gulf states, makes this possible.
Growing demand for feed, fueled by an expanding dairy sector, drives demand for wheat. Wheat production in the EU will rise to 160.7 million tonnes in 2030/31 from the current 142.5 million tonnes.
All forecasts are based on the current 28-member community. As you know, Britain will leave the EU in 2019.
Text: HANSA Derivatives Trading GmbH /
