Russia could announce details of a possible grain export quota for the first half of the coming year in the middle of this month, the agricultural consultancy Sovecon announced today.
Russia, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, is applying a quota mechanism for the export of grain from April to June to ensure domestic supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Department of Agriculture said Monday that the system remains relevant despite a large harvest, but didn't say whether it would be reintroduced. The size of the quota that may be pending has not yet been determined, but authorities say it will likely be close to the exportable surplus for the January-June 2021 period, "said the company, which did not disclose its sources for it. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture responded not in response to a request from Reuters to comment on the size or timing of a possible quota.
A quota would have no significant restrictive effect on exports, said Sovecon. Russia's wheat exports are 24 million tons from July to December 2020 and 15 million tons from January to June 2021.The 2020/21 financial year runs from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021.
Sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters on Monday that a quota of 20 million tons of grain could be set for January through June 2021, adding that the size and exact mechanism are still under discussion. Russia's Agriculture Ministry could increase its 2020-21 exportable grain surplus estimate by 5 million tons from its current 45 million tons if it decides to impose the quota, they added.
In its report, Sovecon raised its forecast for Russian grain exports in 2020/21 by 2.5 million tons to 49.1 million tons.
Source
Hansa Terminhandel GmbH
