Dry spring weather and the expectation of low rainfall over the next two weeks are causing analysts and Russian farmers to worry about this year's Russian grain harvest.
Russia continues to expect a larger grain harvest than last year. The acreage has been enlarged and the stocks are in good shape after the mild winter.
The lack of precipitation, especially in the southern regions, is meanwhile fueling Russian cash market prices. Dmitry Rylko, managing director of the Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR, said that precipitation is absolutely necessary after the very dry March. The agricultural consultancy SovEcon also speaks of unfavorable conditions for the Russian grain harvest. The stocks are in good shape, but rainfall is urgently needed in the coming weeks, especially in the south.
In the past few weeks, it has been dry in the main growing areas for winter wheat. The situation is better in central Russia and in the Volga region, where more rain has fallen.
Summer grain sowing in Russia is starting faster than last year. Per 10April, summer cereals were sown on an area of 3.5 million hectares or 12% of the planned acreage. Last year it was 1.6 million hectares at the same time.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture currently expects a harvest of 125.3 million tons of grain, while SovEcon expects 129.8 million tons, of which 84.4 million tons of wheat.
Last year, a total of 121.2 million tons of grain were harvested, including 74.5 million tons of wheat
Source
Hansa Terminhandel GmbH
