Russia's wheat export prices fell for the sixth consecutive week last week due to weak global commodity markets and the falling ruble.
Russian export wheat with 12.5% protein, loaded in Black Sea ports, dropped $ 1 to $ 213 / ton FOB at the end of last week, SovEcon reported yesterday. The price of export barley fell accordingly by $ 4 to $ 181 / ton.
IKAR also reported a $ 1 drop to $ 212 / tonne.
According to IKAR, prices for wheat from the new harvest are between $ 192 and $ 193 per tonne in negotiations. Russia has exported 28.1 million tons of grain since the beginning of the 2019/20 season on July 1 to March 5, a 19% decrease year-on-year, SovEcon said, citing customs data. Wheat exports accounted for 24.2 million tonnes of this.
SovEcon sees Russia's grain exports at 2.1 million tons in March.
The Russian domestic market was relatively stable last week, but SovEcon expects ruble grain prices to rise this week due to the weaker ruble.
A rapid growth in domestic grain prices usually gives Russian officials a headache because of the rising costs for mill companies or meat producers. In recent years, the trend has prompted them to take official or unofficial measures to slow down exports.
Rapidly rising grain prices could lead to export restrictions in the future, according to SovEcon in a separate note. This could be the introduction of a tariff (currently zero) or informal restrictions. For example, the government could make it difficult to obtain the phytosanitary certificates required for export.
Farmers in Russia and Ukraine are waiting for rain as they start sowing spring grain earlier than usual after the warm and dry winter, analysts and officials said last week.
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