Russia: wheat rally stopped for the time being?

The dramatic increase in Russian wheat export prices has slowed in the past week. Analysts expect further declines after the US Department of Agriculture raised the forecast for the 2018/19 season for Russia last Friday. The USDA now expects a harvest of 68 million tons for Russia (previous month: 67 million tons).
Black wheat prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% ​​protein remained unchanged last week compared to the previous week at 234 USD per ton based on FOB, according to the Russian agricultural consultants IKAR. By contrast, SovEcon announces a $ 2 increase to $ 234 / ton FOB. The week before, prices rose $ 15. The slight increase was due to the weaker exchange rate of the ruble to the US dollar. The price of barley rose by $ 4.50 to $ 225.50.
Traditionally, the willingness of agriculture to sell declines when the ruble exchange rate weakens.
As of 8 August, 5.65 million tonnes of grain were exported in the current marketing period 2018/19. That's an increase of 51% over the previous year at the same time. Wheat was exported in a volume of 4.63 million tons, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
SovEcon reduced the forecast of the 2018 grain harvest in Russia last week to 109.9 million tonnes. Before that, the company still expected 113.9 million tons. Weak yields in the Volga region were mentioned as the reason for this. The wheat harvest forecast was reduced from 69.6 million tonnes to 68.4 million tonnes.
IKAR reduced the forecast of the grain harvest to 111.8 million tons and the wheat harvest forecast to 70.1 million tons.
Prices for Class 3 wheat in European Russia rose last week by 675 rubles ($ 9.98) to 10,350 rubles per tonne based on ex Works.

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