Russia's wheat is in poor shape

Conditions for Russian winter wheat stocks are tight, despite some improvement in recent weeks. The situation is particularly tense in the Volgograd, Stavropol and surrounding regions.
Russia's farmers sowed winter wheat on dry soil this year, increasing the risk for the 2021 crop. "Despite some improvements in recent weeks, the plants are still in poor overall condition," reports the agricultural consultancy Sovecon in the note. "Much will depend on how hard this winter will be and how much rainfall we will see."
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, farmers have already sown 99.7% of the planned area, or 19.1 million hectares, of winter grain for next year's harvest, compared to 18.1 million hectares at the same time a year ago.
The rate of sowing in poor condition, which Russian officials normally estimate and report in late November, is likely to be close to a record high, said Dmitry Rylko, head of agricultural consultancy ICAR. In the past two years, only 6-8% of Russia's winter grain stocks were in poor condition.
The situation is also complicated by the lack of moisture in the deeper soil layers in several key regions, which means a higher risk for winter and summer crops in 2021.
"It is already clear that Russia's winter wheat will not achieve record yields in 2021, but we may still have decent yields," said Rylko.
Russian farmers sown the largest area of winter wheat this fall, which will partially make up for bad weather. Rainfall in several southern regions expected this week could also improve the situation.
The prospects for the 2021 wheat harvest in Russia will continue to improve in the event of a warm and snowy winter and a leisurely spring, Rylko added.

Hansa Terminhandel GmbH
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