Europe is facing a smaller wheat harvest due to the heavy rainfall in autumn. However, the remarkably warm winter has strengthened cultures in some regions, experts said on Friday.
The largest EU wheat producer France is facing a significantly smaller wheat harvest this year after heavy rain has reduced the area sown and the stocks are weaker than in the previous year. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates the winter wheat acreage for this year's harvest at 4.70 million hectares, a decrease of 5.6% compared to the previous year. The smaller winter wheat acreage compared to the original intentions becomes clearer in Western Europe, where the yield potential is also impaired by the late sowing, says Strategy Grains.
Despite good prospects in Germany, the Baltic countries, Central and Eastern Europe, wheat production in the EU is expected to be significantly lower than in the previous year due to the expected results in France and Great Britain. Strategy Grains forecasts a harvest of 33.8 million tons for France after 39.5 million tons in the previous year.
According to official estimates, the German winter wheat acreage has decreased by 7.1% compared to 2019 to around 2.83 million hectares. Wheat is currently in good to very good condition. The main concern is that warm weather means a widespread lack of winter hardiness, and wheat could be susceptible to sudden frosts.
According to Wojtek Sabaranski from analysts Sparks Polska, wheat seed in Poland rose by 2-3% (2019: 2 million hectares). Winter crops are looking pretty good right now, Sabaranski said. Wheat sometimes has overgrowth and is exposed to various diseases at unusually high temperatures.
Britain's wheat area is expected to decline sharply as the rains force many farmers to switch to spring crops. "We estimate UK winter wheat acreage will decrease at least 20% year over year," said Ben Bodart of CRM AgriCommodities. Bodart predicted that this year's UK wheat harvest could decrease from 16.2 million tons in 2019 to 10.6 million tons.This will make Britain a net importer after it leaves the European Union.
Source
HANSA Terminhandel
