Soybeans: winners and losers in the trade dispute

Chicago soybean futures may fall below the $ 8 mark for the first time in a decade, as the US-China trade warens further, according to Thomas Mielke, editor of Germany's newsletter Oil World at the current event Conference "Globoil India".
China imposed an import duty on US soybeans in July in response to import tariffs imposed by US President Trump on Chinese products. Soybean processors from China are increasingly meeting their needs in South America.
China's shift away from US soybeans puts pressure on CBoT's prices. China buys 60% of all traded soybeans worldwide. So far, the soybean diets have already lost more than 10% in value.
Chinese soybean imports in the period from October to January could decline by 10 to 12 million tons compared to the same period of the previous year. The trade war will also lead to India exporting up to 600,000 tons of soybean meal in the marketing year 2018/19, according to Mielke.
Brazil and Argentina benefit from the trade dispute with significantly higher soybean exports to China. India could benefit from soybean exports to China.
New Delhi is concerned by the growing trade deficit with China and is therefore asking for better market access for its agricultural products.
Palm oil prices could rise in 2019 if crude oil prices remain at the current high level. Crude oil is as expensive as it was four years ago. This increases the attractiveness of producing biofuel with cheaper cooking oil.

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