Strategy Grains cuts EU wheat export volume

On the penultimate trading day of this week, wheat rose significantly on Euronext/Matif. For the front month of December there was a high sales volume northwards of 4 euros to 242.00 euros/t. The subsequent contract terms also increased noticeably. Yesterday, the French analysis house Strategie Grains revised its export forecast for the current marketing year significantly downwards, surprising market participants. Compared to the August estimate, analysts expect export volumes to be 700,000 tonnes lower, now at 30.1 million tonnes. This is noticeably below the previous year's result of 31.58 million tonnes. Up to and including September 8th, 5.84 million tonnes of common wheat were exported to third countries by EU countries in the course of the marketing year so far. At this point in the previous year it was already 8.16 and the 2021/22 marketing year is currently around 1.3 million tonnes short. The fact that Europe's wheat prices rose yesterday is mainly due to the continued tense situation in Ukraine and the recent mutual attacks on important port infrastructure. On the CBoT, wheat prices were unable to maintain their upward movement and closed correspondingly lower.Here, market participants focused primarily on the competitive situation with Russia. At 437,900 tonnes, weekly export sales published yesterday remain well below last year's figures. In addition, Canada's Statistics Office has increased its forecast for the wheat harvest there by 400,000 tonnes to 29.8 million tonnes. Nevertheless, Canadian wheat production is well behind last year's volume. Last year, farmers there brought in 32.3 million tons.

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