USDA believes Ukraine can export more wheat

Wheat prices continue to fall. Yesterday on Euronext/Matif it went south by another 3.00 euros to 210.75 euros/t in the front month of March 24. This also has an impact on the cash market quotations. Bread and feed wheat as well as feed barley are also trading weaker at the wholesale level. Sales on the cash market are manageable. There is sufficient feed grain available, but there is a lack of widespread demand. Baking qualities are now more in demand and sought after, but there is a lack of available quantities. There seems to be movement in the dispute over deliveries from Ukraine to European countries. According to rumors, the government has threatened consequences if Ukrainian logisticians and exporters apply for transit permits and then sell the goods in Eastern European countries contrary to the permit. In a special report, the USDA estimated Ukraine's current wheat exports for the current season at 17.7 million tons, around 3 percent more than last year. The increase is due to increased export capacities in the ports. Previously, the USDA had assumed wheat exports of 14 million tons for Ukraine. The increased export estimate is causing increased price pressure, particularly for European quotations. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture expects the wheat cultivation area to be 84.5 million hectares, 300,000 hectares larger than last year, for the coming harvest. Around 20 million hectares of this are winter wheat, 96 percent of which are rated as being in at least satisfactory condition. According to the grain exchange in Buenos Aires, Argentina has so far brought in 15.1 million wheat. The harvest is currently in full swing in Argentina. On the CBOT, the recovery attempt on Tuesday was short-lived; wheat in the front month of March fell by double digits. Pre-market price trends in Chicago were also weaker this morning.

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