USDA expects larger wheat crop in 24/25

The downward trend in wheat continues. Yesterday, wheat for March 2024 lost 1.50 euros on the Paris stock exchange at a settlement of 206 euros/t. The follow-up contract on May 24 fell with a loss of 3 euros per ton and the mark of 200.00 euros/t. Yesterday, negative specifications from overseas had a particularly negative impact. On the CBoT it went south by a very significant 18.50 US cents. The USDA has published an initial estimate of the coming harvest and sees a significantly smaller acreage than last year. Because of the good conditions so far, a harvest of 51.7 million tons is expected, which is around 5 percent more than the wheat harvest from 2023/24, which is given at 49.2 million tons. If the forecast is correct, this would be the largest harvest in the last five years, despite smaller acreage. At the same time, weak US export sales weighed on trade in Chicago. Last week, 350,000 tons of wheat were sold for export, another 8 percent less than the previous week. The actual export loadings are somewhat friendlier at 405,000 tons. In the most recent tender from Egypt, European exporters were only partially accepted. The country has 180.000 tons of wheat booked from Ukraine and Romania. The fact that Russian prices were not competitive at US$245/t caused some optimism. Pre-market prices in Chicago are showing losses again today.

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