USDA increases global wheat forecast - prices negative

Wheat prices in Paris and Chicago closed yesterday, Thursday, with significant losses. On Euronext/Matif, the leading March date fell to 205.25 euros/t, closing with a daily loss of 3.75 euros. At the CBoT things went south in double digits. In addition to the figures from the WASDE report published yesterday evening, competition prices from Russia and Ukraine in particular drove prices down in Europe. As already reported, both countries recently reported significantly dynamic export volumes and falling prices in the Black Sea ports. In the WASDE report itself, US ending stocks were increased, contrary to analyst expectations. At a global level, there are slightly lower expectations about the quantities that are likely to be in warehouses at the end of the 23/24 marketing year. In January the USDA had assumed 260.03 million tons, now 259.44 million tons are expected. At the end of the last marketing year, 271.21 million tons were in the grain silos. Global production was increased by a good 830,000 tons due to better harvest forecasts in Argentina and the Middle East. For Europe, the USDA expects a wheat harvest of 134,000 million tons, lowering the forecast by 300,000 tons compared to the previous estimate. Overall, the global harvest is now seen at 785.74 million tons, which is lower than in the previous year (-3.43 million tons) but higher than in the previous year 2021/22 when 780.05 million tons were harvested worldwide. In addition to higher global production and increased ending stocks in the USA, weak wheat export sales continued to weigh on market sentiment. There were slightly lower price trends in pre-market trading on Friday morning, but a clear direction is not yet apparent.

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