WASDE: Global wheat forecast higher

Wheat went south on both exchanges on Friday. In Paris, the most traded March date lost 1.75 euros/t with a closing price of 230.25 euros/t. The wheat and grain markets were primarily influenced by the data from the December WASDE. On Friday, the USDA increased its forecasts for global wheat production from around 1.03 million tons to 783.01 million tons. There were adjustments primarily for Australia, where a million tonnes more wheat is now expected, and for Canada (minus 950,000 tonnes). For Europe, the USDA expects an unchanged wheat harvest of 134.3 million tons. EU exports are still expected to be at 37.5 million tons, but higher wheat consumption in Europe itself is likely to reduce supply here. In the USA, the USDA expects lower ending stocks. Export forecasts have been increased, especially because China has recently purchased more wheat from the USA. However, due to higher global production and negative targets for corn and soy, wheat prices on the CBoT were unable to rise despite the good export forecasts and closed with losses here too. Egypt has reportedly purchased 420,000 tons of wheat from Russia. Russia exports currently remain slow.The weather on the Black Sea continues to limit port accessibility and loading activities. Before the trading session in Chicago, there were also red signs for grain this morning.

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