WASDE sends wheat south

Things went south again for wheat yesterday. The positive signs from Wednesday could no longer carry yesterday. On Euronext/Matif, the December contract lost 2.50 euros/t to 233.25 euros. For the following March date there was a loss of 2.75 euros/t on the scoreboard. The CBoT was also clearly heading south. The December contract closed there with a loss of 11.50 US cents at 580.75 US cents/bu (199.97 euros/t). In particular, the WASDE report published yesterday evening by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) caused the downward trend. The global ending stocks are estimated to be higher in the new figures than in November. In addition, the USDA increased its forecast for Russia by a very significant 5 million tons to 90 million tons. Although the Russian analysis houses expect a harvest of more than 100 million tons, as in the previous year there are major differences between the domestic and the USDA estimates. The USDA has also slightly increased the forecast for the European harvest by 400,000 tons to 134.4 million tons. The export potential is seen as unchanged at 37.5 million tons. The EU Commission itself expects around 30.5 million tonnes of wheat exports.Ukraine's export potential was also increased from 11 million tons to 12 million tons. Export sales for the USA were also published yesterday. By November 2nd, traders there had been able to sell 350,000 tons for export to other countries. That is 28 percent more than in the previous week, but overall the volumes from the perspective of the financial year to date remain significantly behind the export commitments of the previous year at this point in time. The gap is about 6 percent. Premarket contracts are also trending weaker this morning.

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